What You Can Do Publish-Vaccine, and When

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It should be much safer to move once your community has reached herd immunity – the point where the virus can’t easily spread because enough people have been vaccinated or are already suffering from the disease. This also helps protect people who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons and people who work in crowded places or indoors. Many scientists believe that at least 70 percent of people must have acquired immunity in order for the entire community to be protected. However, this number is only an estimate and may need to be revised once we know more about how vaccines affect the ability of the virus to spread.

When the majority of people are vaccinated, scientists say it is safer to do things in your community, such as: E.g. eating in indoor restaurants, attending a party or taking the bus. Next Christmas families could likely gather in ways they should avoid this year, they said.

It is too early to know exactly when we will reach that threshold. Although federal officials have said the United States should have the resources to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people By summer, many scientists say the timeline is optimistic. Vaccinating everyone could pose logistical challenges and some people have expressed reluctance to vaccinate.

It is likely that some regions have higher vaccination rates than others. Just as some communities have been susceptible to measles due to low childhood vaccination rates, outbreaks can occur in areas with low Covid-19 vaccination rates even after the country as a whole has reached herd immunity levels. Knowing this context is crucial for decision making.

Experts also stressed that even once herd immunity is reached, Covid-19 is unlikely to go away immediately. Outbreaks could still be likely, likely in winter.

“Winter will be flu and Covid season,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist studying Covid-19 at the University of California at Irvine. The last things he’ll return to are international travel and crowded events like concerts – but he reckons he’ll do those again at some point. Not only is he waiting for the vaccine, but also for the spread of the virus to decrease sharply and for the hospitals to have more capacity: “I intend to return bit by bit.”

During the pandemic, experts asked people to envision a risk budget: if you spend some of that limited supply on riskier behaviors, you have to limit other aspects of your life. Vaccines can add to a person’s risk budget, Professor Lofgren said. But they don’t make the budget infinite: if you’re traveling to see friends, you may still want to make up for that decision by avoiding indoor restaurants.

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